Five Things to Watch for Tonight

5) The Black Vote: Most polls going in to South Carolina and Florida dramatically underestimated the extent of black support for Obama. It's what TNR's Noam Schieber has christened the "Reverse-Bradley/Wilder Effect," and he seems to be on to something. SurveyUSA, for example, puts Obama's black support at 76% in AL, 71% in MA, 74% in MO, and only 57% in NY. In Georgia, Zogby spots Obama a 20 point lead, but projects just 68% of the black vote, ten points lower than he drew in SC. (But there's at least one state in which it's unlikely that polls are underprojecting: SurveyUSA puts Obama's black support in Illinois at a stunning 93%. If that figure holds up, he'll sweep all 24 delegates from Chicago's 3 majority-black districts.) This is a great early indicator, because demographic breakdowns are among the first exit poll results to leak - Marc Ambinder generally posts them in the early evening. Also, watch the results out of Georgia, where polls close at 7pm.
The Indicators: If Obama can top 70% of the black vote in NY, 80% elsewhere, or 90% in Illinois, he's going to do very well in the delegate tally. If Hillary can hold him under 60% in NY, 70% elsewhere, or 80% in IL, it'll be a major coup.

4) Gender Patterns: This is a complicated issue, to be sure. Hillary's core support comes from women - the older, whiter, and poorer they are, the more likely they are to support her. In five of the six Democratic primaries held to date, women have composed 57-59% of the voters. The exception is South Carolina, where 61% were women. In SC, as in other the Southern states, a large female turnout is a sign of a high black turnout, and may well be good news for Obama. But elsewhere, if women compose a greater-than-expected percentage of the electorate, that's probably good news for Hillary. (It's worth noting that, contra Linda Hirshman, there's no real evidence that Hillary has succeeded in drawing women to the polls in disproportionately large numbers so far this cycle. That's something she'd like to change today.)
The Indicators: Non-Southern states in which women compose 60% or more of the voters may be harbingers of a good night for Hillary.

3) Show Me the Garden State: Here's as stark a contrast as you'll find in the annals of polling.
Missouri: SurveyUSA, Clinton +11; Rasmussen, Clinton +9; Zogby, Obama +3
New Jersey: SurveyUSA, Clinton +11; Rasmussen, Clinton +6; Zogby, Clinton +5
Someone, obviously, is using a model that's ill-suited to this year's actual electorate. If you were to array all the results of these three polling operations along the spectrum of published polls, you'd find SurveyUSA consistently among the most favorable to Hillary, Rasmussen tilting slightly toward Obama, and Zogby among the most favorable to Obama. I don't mean to suggest that there's bias at work, just that in this groundbreaking cycle, it's been awfully tough for pollsters to guess who's actually going to show up to vote. But here's why this argument matters. All three of these polls have recent numbers out of the Golden State, far and away the day's biggest prize:
California: SurveyUSA, Clinton +10; Rasmussen, Obama +1; Zogby, Obama +13.
Wow. That's an absolutely insane 23-point spread. Someone is very, very wrong. But who?
The Indicators: If Hillary captures the Garden State by double digits, or wins Missouri by a decent margin, then No, Obama Can't. But if the race is close in Jersey, and Obama can win Missouri, then Yes, He Can.

2) Independent Voters: Among the Super Tuesday states, most are using modified or open primaries, meaning that voters unregistered with any party have a chance to vote. In general, a high turnout among political independents is very good news for Obama. Hillary continues to outpoll him, in almost every state, among registered Democrats. So if few independents show up, or if they decide (where they're able) to vote in the Republican contest for McCain or Ron Paul instead of in the Democratic race, that's good news for her. In California, for example, Suffolk projects independents at an eye-popping 25% of the total, the highly-respected Field Poll projects independent turnout at 13%, while SurveyUSA puts it at just 10%. In Massachusetts, Suffolk projects 16%, but SurveyUSA finds 25%.
The Indictator: If independent turnout in the Bay State tops 20% of voters, Obama's going to have a good day. If it tops 15% in California, it's going to turn into a great day. But if bad weather or apathy keep these folks at home, Clinton will pad her margins substantially.

1) Delegates: Here's a guarantee. Neither candidate will gain an insurmountable lead in delegates by the end of the night. Going into Tuesday, Clinton leads in the delegate tally, 249-172, including those superdelegates who have made a public declaration of their support. A candidate needs the votes of 2,025 delegates to secure the nomination. There are only 1,681 delegates available today, so we're not going to see this settled, one way or the other. But both the campaigns have tried to set artificially-low expectations for their delegate hauls, so that they can proclaim victory. David Plouffe, on behalf of Obama, writes that if his man's take is within 100 delegates of Clinton's, that's a win. The Clinton camp, meanwhile, says that gaining more delegates than Obama ought to count as a win. So we can read that as an acknowledgement, on both sides, that the delegates are likely to be split remarkably evenly tonight.
The Indicator: If Obama wins a majority of the delegates who are awarded (at least 841) then even Hillary's people should acknowledge his win. If Hillary wins over 100 more than Obama (at least 891), then Axelrod and Plouffe should stand an applaud her. And if, as is likely, the totals lie between those extremes, I'll leave the call at your discretion.

So that's what I'd watch for as news starts to trickle in today. If you missed it before, you can catch my take on the Five Myths of Super Tuesday, early voting in California, or yesterday's polls elsewhere on the site. Enjoy! And as always, I welcome your feedback in the comments section.