Five Myths About Super Tuesday

Come Tuesday, a seemingly-interminable succession of pundits will mouth mindless

(1) A majority of delegates will be selected: Almost every major media outlet has trumpeted this one. But it’s bunk. In fact, only 42% of the delegates will be selected on Super Tuesday (or in subsequent conventions that reflect the results of February 5 polls and caucuses).
So what’s up? The media is reporting the number of delegates who reside in Super Tuesday states – in fact, more than half. But 400 of these are superdelegates, who get a ticket to Denver irrespective of the outcome of the voting, and are not bound to reflect the views of voters in their states. More than one media outlet is already counting superdelegates from these states in its running tallies, while simultaneously reporting that a majority of delegates will be selected. Go figure.

(2) Early voting may make the difference: This is one we hear every couple of years. Pundits scrutinize demographic breakdowns, polling numbers, and tea leaves, looking for some indication of how the early voting will go in states that allow it. In fact, there’s only rarely a substantial difference between early voters and those who cast their ballots on primary day. In Florida, for example, early and absentee voters supported Clinton 50-31, and regular voters backed her 50-33. In the Republican Primary, Rudy Giuliani learned to his chagrin that his substantial lead with two weeks left hadn’t left him with a substantial cache of votes.
So what’s up? It turns out that the overwhelming majority of “early” voters cast their ballots just before the election, even if the polls have been open for weeks. So unless there’s a major development in the last day or two, there’s not much variation.

(3) The race may not be settled on February 5: Actually, this one’s a rare media understatement. It turns out that Super Tuesday simply can’t settle the race. It has nothing to do with how close the polls are, and everything to do with the fact that even if one candidate were to win every available delegate, they would still fall well short of the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. So what’s passing as a prognostication is in fact a statement of the glaringly obvious.
So what's up? After building up Super Tuesday for months, the media suddenly realized that it was not the decisive contest that they’d made it out to be. Most years, one candidate becomes the prohibitive frontrunner – a self-fulfilling prophecy. This year, we’re actually going to count the votes.

(4) It’s all about momentum: If there’s one thing we’ve learned this cycle, it’s that momentum matters very little. Obama had huge momentum entering New Hampshire, and lost to Hillary, whose momentum mounted in Nevada, setting the stage for her historic rout in South Carolina. It turns out that voters actually pay attention to what candidates say and do on the trail. Winning in Iowa gave Obama a boost, but not enough to overcome Hillary’s sudden willingness to display her essential humanity. Similarly, all the momentum in the world wasn’t enough to compensate for the Clintons’ willingness to launch slimy attacks, and the voter disgust it engendered.
So what’s up? Momentum gives pundits something to discuss in the long dry spells between primaries. It also freights the early contests with added weight, driving audience interest. Without momentum, Iowa and New Hampshire would just be early contests that award a small number of delegates. Which, come to think of it, is what they are. Now, can we ditch our addiction to subsidizing corn and milk?

(5) It’s a few big states that matter most: In fact, the states that will matter most come Tuesday are those in which one candidate manages to amass a considerable margin. If Hillary and Obama divide California’s 370 delegates evenly between them, then picking up 10 extra Clinton delegates in Oklahoma or 20 for Obama in Georgia might make all the difference.
So what’s up? Actually, there’s a grain of truth in this one. Winning 55% of 370 delegates is obviously better than winning the same percentage of 38. But for all the media attention focused on a handful of large states, it seems more likely that a larger number of smaller states may tip the scales decisively. Polls in the past few days have shown the races neck-and-neck in California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, making it improbable that either will confer a decisive advantage. The home states – Illinois and New York – seem poised to largely offset each other, as Obama’s larger margin in the Land of Lincoln compensates for the higher delegate tally in the Empire State. Come Tuesday night, don’t be surprised to find yourself waiting with bated breath to learn if Obama has carried Kansas and Idaho, or if he’s won all fourteen half-votes from Democrats Abroad.