Thursday, February 7, 2008

Convention Math: Adding up the Unpledged Add-On Delegates (UADs)

So by now, we're all familiar with the rudiments of the delegate selection process. We ordinary folk go to the polls or the precinct caucuses (or in Texas, both) and cast our votes. Those are tallied, and eventually used to determine all of the pledged delegates, of whom there are 3,253. Then there are the superdelegates, the party bigwigs who get their tickets to Detroit no matter what, of whom there are 796. And that's the end of the story.

But it turns out that not all superdelegates are the same. For 720 of them, the process works pretty much as you'd expect - they hold public office, a seat on the DNC, or have held an important position in the past. We know who they are, we're tracking their endorsements, and we're tallying their support.

But then there are the 76 Unpledged Add-on Delegates, the ones I'll call UADs for short. These aren't necessarily party bigwigs. In fact, we don't know who they are at all, because they haven't even been selected yet. But as a block with 76 votes, there as important as any midsized state. And if we look closely, we can already figure out how more than half of them are going to vote.

Here's how it works. Every state is eligible to receive one UAD for every four DNC members it possesses (except for DC, which is stuck with just 2). Since the party chair and vice-chair of every state serve on the DNC, and the rules stipulate that the total be rounded up to the nearest integer, that means every state gets at least one UAD. Some get more. Illinois gets three, for example, and California has five. And it's up to the state parties to decide how to select these delegates. In the past, they've typically been awarded as plums to political insiders. Since they're not distributed until late in the process, they've never had an impact on determining the nominee. But this year, that's going to change.

States have adopted a wide range of methods for selecting UADs. Those include a vote of the state party committee; a vote of the entire state convention; a vote of the entire delegation to the DNC; or, in some cases, a vote of one of those bodies that's a sham, because the state chair only presents the nominees he wants to serve. Because the methods vary widely, it's not always possible to figure out which way these delegates will lean. But in most cases, we can be fairly certain. Although these delegates are formally unpledged, I can guarantee that any candidate who controls a majority of the body which awards them will ensure that the slots are reserved for their own supporters. That's right - there's nothing proportional about it. For UADs, the system is winner take all. And that allows us to start to compile a tally.

Here's a quick rundown of states that have already voted:
Clinton Obama Undetermined
Iowa: 0 0 1
NH: 0 0 1
NV: 1 0 0
SC: 0 0 1
AL: 0 0 1
AK: 0 1 0
AR: 1 0 0
AZ: 0 0 1
CA: 5 0 0
CO: 0 1 0
CT: 0 0 1
DE: 0 1 0
GA: 0 0 2
ID: 0 1 0
IL: 0 3 0
KS: 0 1 0
MA: 0 0 2
MN: 0 2 0
MO: 0 0 2
ND: 0 0 1
NM: 0 0 1
NJ: 0 0 2
NY: 0 0 4
OK: 0 0 1
TN: 0 0 2
UT: 0 1 0

Total: 7 11 23

Those aren't enormous numbers, but I'll continue to track this, and I suspect the tallies will mount with time. For now, the result is a four delegate advantage for Obama that's not acknowledged in any tally of which I'm aware.

Now, a few words to forestall howls of outrage in the comments section. The most common method of selecting UADs in caucus states is a vote at the state convention; the most common method in primary states is a vote of the state committee. That confers certain advantages on a candidate who runs strongly in caucuses - in this case, Obama. He's already got the votes he needs to secure those UADs. Now it's likely that the state committees that meet in states that one candidate carried will choose delegates who will back that candidate - but we don't actually know that. A few examples. Hillary is almost certain to carry the four UADs from NY. But in Massachusetts, Obama still has the backing of a significant number of institutional players, even though he lost the primary. Similarly, Hillary has lots of endorsements in SC. So where the majority of people who will choose these delegates haven't publicly committed to supporting a particular candidate, I've left the delegates in the undecided column.

One other note: I'm sure I got things wrong! Please use the comments section to point out the error of my ways.

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